Rafael B. Stern

Rafael B. Stern

Professor of Statistics

Universidade Federal de São Carlos

Biography

I am an Assistant Professor at the University of São Paulo. I am currently a member of the Scientific Council of the Brazilian Association of Jurimetrics, an associate investigator at NeuroMat and a member of the Order of Attorneys of Brazil. I am a member of the following research groups:

In case you are looking for Rafael Izbicki, his site is here.

Interests
  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Computational Historical Linguistics
  • Decision Theory
  • Jurimetrics
  • Machine Learning
Education

  • PhD in Statistics, 2015

    Carnegie Mellon University

  • MSc in Statistics, 2008

    Universidade de São Paulo

  • BA in Law, 2007

    Pontifícia Universidade Católica - SP

  • BA in Statistics, 2006

    Universidade de São Paulo

Featured Publications

CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient conformal regions in high dimensions
Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage assuming solely i.i.d. data. We introduce CD-split and HPD-split, which yield general prediction regions and converge to the optimal highest predictive density set.
Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, Rafael B. Stern
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CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient conformal regions in high dimensions
Indemnity for a lost chance
Civil liability for a lost chance occurs when a tortious action changes the probabilities of the outcomes that can be obtained by the victim. Instead of discussing specific formulae, we propose a principled approach to quantifying damages in lost chances. We present several qualitative legal questions regarding how to quantify damages and show that the answers lead to precise and general rules for damage quantification.
Rafael B. Stern, Joseph B. Kadane
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Indemnity for a lost chance
Quantification under prior probability shift: the ratio estimator and its extensions
The quantification problem consists of determining the prevalence of a given label in a target population. However, one often has access to the labels in a sample from the training population but not in the target population. A common assumption in this situation is that of prior probability shift, that is, once the labels are known, the distribution of the features is the same in the training and target populations. In this paper, we derive a new lower bound for the risk of the quantification problem under the prior shift assumption. Using a weaker version of the prior shift assumption, which can be tested, we show that ratio estimators can be used to build confidence intervals for the quantification problem.
Afonso F. Vaz, Rafael Izbicki, Rafael B. Stern
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Quantification under prior probability shift: the ratio estimator and its extensions
The Logical Consistency of Simultaneous Agnostic Hypothesis Tests
Simultaneous hypothesis tests can fail to provide results that meet logical requirements. For example, A implies B, there exist tests that, based on the same data, reject B but not A. This paper develops logically-coherent agnostic tests that also perform well statistically. These tests are characterized as region estimator-based tests.
Luís G. Esteves, Rafael Izbicki, Julio M. Stern, Rafael B. Stern
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The Logical Consistency of Simultaneous Agnostic Hypothesis Tests

Recent Publications

Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, Rafael B. Stern (2022). CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient conformal regions in high dimensions. In JMLR.

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Fabiana Luci de Oliveira, Rafael B. Stern, Ana Fernanda Noli (2022). Processo decisório do Supremo Tribunal Federal na transição democrática brasileira (1978-1988). In REED.

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Ruobin Gong, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Rafael B. Stern (2021). Deceptive Credences. In Ergo.

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Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Rafael B. Stern, Joseph B. Kadane (2021). What finite-additivity can add to decision theory. In SMA.

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Mateus B. Comito, Rafael Izbicki, Rafael B. Stern, Julio A. Z. Trecenti (2021). Causas de desaparecimento no estado de São Paulo entre 2013 e 2014: uma análise automatizada de boletins de ocorrência. In RDPESP.

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Teaching

Undergraduate courses

  • Bayesian Inference (16/1, 17/1, 21/1)
  • Classical Inference (17/2)
  • Computational Statistics (21/1, 21/2)
  • Introduction to Statistics (16/1, 18/1, 18/2, 19/1, 22/1)
  • Probability 1 (17/1, 18/2, 19/2)
  • Probability 2 (16/2, 18/1)

Graduate courses

  • Bayesian Inference (16/2, 19/1, 21/1, 21/2, 22/1)
  • Classical Inference (19/2)
  • Decision Theory (17/2)

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Indemnity for a lost chance
Civil liability for a lost chance applies to cases in which a tortious action changes the probabilities of the outcomes that can be obtained by the victim. This talk uses Decision Theory to discuss how to quantify damages in such cases.
Jun 1, 2021 1:00 PM — 3:00 PM COMCA 2021
Rafael B. Stern, Joseph B. Kadane
Video
Indemnity for a lost chance
A model for the evolution of languages
I’ll present a model for infering the evolution of the phonology of languages. A relevant innovation of this model is that it captures the regularity of sound changes.
Jun 1, 2017 1:00 PM — 3:00 PM
Rafael B. Stern, Joseph B. Kadane
Video
Teoria da decisão e aplicações ao Direito
Introdução à Teoria da Decisão com aplicações na Jurimetria. Em particular, discute-se o efeito da ausência de taxas judiciais nos JEC’s sobre o valor pedido pelo autor.
Jun 1, 2017 1:00 PM — 3:00 PM UNICAMP
Rafael B. Stern
Video
Teoria da decisão e aplicações ao Direito

Recent Posts

Doação de equipamento de proteção para hospitais
Descrição das atividades da Tropa da Garoa na produção e doação de equipamentos de proteção individual durante a pandemia COVID-19.
Rafael B. Stern
May 13, 2020 3 min read COVID-19, Tropa da Garoa
Doação de equipamento de proteção para hospitais
A discrepância entre o valor da causa e o valor concedido por danos morais nos JEC's
Análise baseada em Teoria da Decisão da discrepância entre o valor pedido pelo autor e o valor concedido pelo juiz nos Tribunais de pequenas causas (JEC).
Athos Damiani, Mariana Ferez, Rafael B. Stern, Julio A. Z. Trecenti
May 16, 2019 10 min read Jurimetrics
A discrepância entre o valor da causa e o valor concedido por danos morais nos JEC's
Jurimetrics in the Constitution
I recently wrote a text in portuguese which studies how Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court decided ex-president Lula’s habeas corpus. In the following, I translate this text to English. Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court recently decided ex-president Lula’s habeas corpus in a tight vote of 5 for and 6 against.
Rafael B. Stern
Apr 23, 2018 4 min read Jurimetrics

Students
Nicholas Moura e Silva Graduate 2022 Aplicação de modelo de classificação em relatos de atendimento como método de automação de atividades jurídicas
Renato Annoni Graduate 2022 Aferição da eficácia regulatóriado ambiente econômico financeiro via análise de dados
Humberto Bezerra de Meneses Júnior Graduate 2022 Uma análise jurimétrica aplicada ao problema do anatocismo no Brasil
Gabriela Massoni Graduate 2021 Análise de textos por meio de processos estocásticos na representação word2vec
Lucas Pereira Lopes Graduate 2020 Aprendizado não-supervisionado utilizando representação em grafos
Elmo Henrique de Moraes Graduate 2020 Classificação de contratos de seguros para atendimento da norma contábil
Guilherme Antonio Lima Undergraduate 2020 Restauração de imagens e otimização por Monte Carlo
Luben Miguel Cabezas Undergraduate 2020 Previsão em modelos filogenéticos
Luri Yasuda Ikeda Undergraduate 2020 Métodos de simulação para o cálculo de integrais com aplicações à Inferência Bayesiana
Ana Fernanda Noli Undergraduate 2020 Estimação de pontos ideais no STF em decisões de ADI e Rp
Ana Fernanda Noli Undergraduate 2020 Estratégias ótimas em ações judiciais
Mayara Regina Formenton Undergraduate 2020 Análise estatística do Judiciário no combate à violência contra a mulher
Tatyana Zabanova Graduate 2019 Improving recommender systems with social network data
Joao Poloniato Graduate 2018 FBST in high dimensions
Rafaela Vansan Undergraduate 2018 Analysis of hamiltonian monte carlo
Carolina T. S. Mello Undergraduate 2018 A map of administrative improbity in Brazil
Gabriela Massoni Undergraduate 2018 The efficiency of shared judicial staff
Marcia Silva Undergraduate 2017 Using police reports to determine the reason why a person is missing
Michelle Massaro Undergraduate 2017 A model for child adoption matching

Contact

  • rbstern at gmail dot com

Popular Topics

Agnostic Test Bernstein Polynomials Bets Causality Conformal Prediction Crowdsourcing Decision Theory Foundations Haphazard Sampling Hypothesis Test Intentional Sampling JEC Jurimetrics Logical Coherence Machine Learning Minimax Orgulity Prior Shift Quantification Rerandomization